![]() (In a sense, all this is true of text as well, but with subtler effects.) Animations can whitewash the guesswork and assumptions that go into interpreting reconstructions. The information can be conveyed with certain emphases, shown from certain angles, slowed down, or enlarged. When we gave subjects still photos of the same traffic situations that they could page through at their own pace-in effect making flip-book animations-the propensity effect wasn’t present.Ĭomputer-animated visualization is appealing because it can help make sense of highly complex information, but it’s also, quite literally, a point of view. So far, we’ve tested propensity only in relation to trajectory events (cars heading toward an accident), but movement seems to be a key factor in sparking the effect. People misattribute visual processing of motion to higher-order judgments, such as predicting outcomes. You experience the propensity effect when, say, a baseball that’s hit hard gives you that momentary feeling of “just knowing” it’s going out of the park. “I could see it coming…” Hindsight bias People who watched computer animation of an accident had more than double the hindsight bias of subjects who looked at a text description and diagrams.Propensity effect People who watched computer animation of a driver error but not the resulting accident were far more likely than other study participants to say they could see an accident coming. The propensity effect was significantly greater for those who watched the driver error but not the accident: They were more likely to say they could see a serious accident coming than those who actually saw it occur and then were asked if they had seen it coming. ![]() Hindsight bias more than doubled for the subjects who watched the computer animation. Some people examined normal traffic conditions others saw or read about a driver error but not the resulting accident still others saw or read about the driver error and the resulting accident. The amounts and types of information varied within each group. ![]() Some received a text description with diagrams, and others watched a computer animation. We presented study participants with traffic situations. But in measuring it, we’ve also discovered its near opposite, what we call the propensity effect: Visualization may also, in certain circumstances, make people hyperconfident of impending events’ outcomes. Our research suggests that this bias is becoming stronger, thanks largely to an abundance of visual information, including re-creations and simulations. Hindsight bias-the irrational belief that past outcomes were predictable-is a well-understood psychological phenomenon.
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